In this review, we'll examine the latest movements of the first cryptocurrency and outline possible developments going forward.

Before reading, be sure to check our review from 06.05.2025, where we put forward hypotheses about the market — many of our predictions turned out to be correct, and if you were following our trading ideas, you likely earned significantly from a timely market exit.

About 6 months have passed since the market peak — $126,000 in late 2025. During this time, the first cryptocurrency lost more than half its value: at the bottom, prices reached $60,000 per coin. The movement was sharp and brief — essentially, such a decline left only prepared investors with a chance to preserve their capital.

The largest American mining companies changed their priorities: instead of the standard "Mine and Hold", they began actively selling mined cryptocurrency, and some even pivoted to servicing AI infrastructure instead of mining altogether (Coindesk, 27.03.2026).

Such a radical price decline could not go unnoticed by us. However, we remember: the market is driven by two emotions — greed and fear. Let's set emotions aside and look at the technical side of the picture.

Let's recall: there are certain historical patterns that Bitcoin has never broken. We'll discuss what will happen if they hold this time too — and consider the case where the first cryptocurrency's price violates them.

Historically:

1. Bitcoin finds support within the price ranges of the previous bull cycle's ATH
2. These ranges of historical maximums serve as a foothold — the accumulation period begins from them
3. The bull cycle and the march to new highs usually takes about 1,000 days (~2.5–3 years) from the bottom of the previous correction, while the correction itself takes about 365 days (~1 year)
4. The bottom of the correction is typically −75% to −85% from ATH
5. Bitcoin historically finds support after a correction in the middle of the halving cycle (~2 years after the halving)

What's happening in the current cycle:

1. ✅ The decline to the previous bull cycle's ATH level ($60–70K) has already occurred, as has consolidation at these levels over several months
2. ✅ Accumulation in the area of previous ATH has already begun
3. ⚠️ The correction from highs to date has taken only 150 days — twice as fast as the historical norm
4. ⚠️ The bottom of the correction reached only −55% from ATH — noticeably shallower than the historical −75% to −85%
5. ✅ By timing, we are in the middle of the halving cycle (the halving was in April 2024, the next is expected in 2028)

Let's examine scenarios for further market movements and keep them in mind throughout the next year. For greater clarity and to reduce chart noise, we'll work with weekly BTC charts.

We'll overlay Fibonacci retracement levels to obtain a reference point for further price movement, on the assumption that the correction is complete and the market will exit existing price ranges (Price Discovery).

Note the color coding:

• 🟡 Yellow marks the price ranges of consolidation from the previous cycle
• 🟢 Green marks the consolidation levels of the current cycle — Order Blocks (OB)

All subsequent scenarios will derive from these levels and from Fibonacci retracement levels.

We applied the Fibonacci retracement to the price levels of the previous cycle to clearly demonstrate the near-perfect performance of this technical indicator — the 1.414 extension precisely projected the recent ATH.

This is, perhaps, the most positive scenario. Its defining feature — BTC will never again see price ranges below $60K.
In this scenario, we assume the decline is over, and the main task for the price is the steady, long-term consolidation of the price levels established in the last cycle, followed by a breakout above the current ATH.
The important levels from which we can expect temporary pullbacks will be $74K, $95K, and ATH ($126K), with intermediate Order Blocks at $104K and $116K providing additional inflection points along the way. These price levels will be key in all scenarios — so they deserve attention regardless of how the Bitcoin market ultimately plays out.
In particular, we may expect:

• Testing of $74K from both sides, with a probable additional retest of this level on the approach to $95K
• Testing of $95K also from both sides: both from the upper part of the range and the lower. In this case, the correction may be deeper — with a move into the lower part of the global correction and a return of price to $74K for further strong buying and growth
• A retest of $95K will give the market the opportunity to head toward ATH without additional delays

After thoroughly testing $74K and $95K on volume, the market will gather enough strength to cross over ATH and test it from above. From there, Price Discovery will begin: by Fibonacci projections, the most likely ATH in the next growth cycle is the level of $173K.

Extended accumulation is characterized by long-term testing of the key levels $74K and $95K and the formation of a global setup for the strongest upward thrust — with no delays at ATH. As shown on the chart, if $95K is quickly worked through, we expect Bitcoin to again seek support around $74K.

The logic: with a quick buyback of the price range, the crowd's euphoria may not be enough to carry price to ATH and beyond. And the targets after a breakout above ATH would be very high and unattainable without enough "fuel" in the form of retail investor money.

🎯 This scenario seems to us the most preferable, although quite optimistic — it is the one that opens the way for Bitcoin to surge to very high prices in the next bull rally.

In this scenario, we assume that right now Bitcoin is not yet ready to move higher, and one more healthy shakeout is needed.

That shakeout could well be a move below $60K. A short and powerful squeeze below the lows of the global correction will help the market gather strength to easily pass $74K and never return to it.

However, in this case extended accumulation, in our view, becomes necessary in the $95K–$126K range. This means Bitcoin won't pass ATH as easily as it leaped over $74K — and that will be a good reason to test $95K again.

A retest of $95K will be sufficient grounds for a move above ATH and the start of Price Discovery.

⚠️ We consider this scenario moderately optimistic: the squeeze itself may lead to serious losses for retail investors, but it also opens the possibility for very high prices in the future.

A caveat upfront: we don't consider this scenario preferable, but we still allow for such a development of events.

Under this scenario, the global correction is not yet over. Bitcoin attempts to break above the $80K resistance area but fails, correcting back to $60K and continuing its decline into the $40K–$50K range.

After such a decline, the price will need extended consolidation within this range before climbing back to $80K. In this scenario, the first cryptocurrency will not be able to break through ATH by the start of the halving — prices will be forced to remain within the existing ATH. After the halving and the resulting liquidity deficit, we still expect prices to break above ATH — but on the fuel of liquidity deficit, not on retail investor money.

This is the most negative scenario among those presented. In it, Bitcoin miners will be placed in a profoundly challenging, long-term loss-making context. The overwhelming majority of mining companies will not withstand such selling pressure and will be forced to cease operations. Such long-term and deep decline has strong potential to cut off the entire market's and private investors' attention from Bitcoin, which could be detrimental to the market as a whole.

However, such a deep decline is also capable of attracting those who are not yet in the market or have been away for a long time. Attractive discounts on the first and most trusted cryptocurrency — one with a physical backing in the form of computing power — may act as a propelling force for Bitcoin, allowing it to reach exceptionally high price ranges after the upcoming halving.

Always make investment decisions on your own and never rely on someone else's investment advice. Whatever scenario the market follows, know this — the scenario may always turn out to be hybrid and combine features of several scenarios at once. Such is the market, and we have no power over it.
Keep your hand on the pulse and your coins close to you. And don't forget: Bitcoin is a deflationary asset — its value will grow regardless of local manipulations.
Regards, team BeMine.