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Bitcoin Halving Cycles: A Mid-Cycle Outlook

2025-05-06 19:27
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.


At the time of writing, it has been about a quarter of the way through Bitcoin’s current four-year liquidity cycle since the most recent 2024 halving event.
In this mid-cycle review, we aim to share a broader perspective on the market and outline potential scenarios for the coming months based on Bitcoin’s typical post-halving behavior.
Rather than relying heavily on indicators, our analysis focuses primarily on price action at higher timeframes, which tends to be more reliable across different financial markets over longer periods.
Looking ahead, historical data suggests that the current bull market is not over yet. However, significant volatility and structural shifts are likely ahead — and it’s important to consider both bullish and bearish scenarios.
In the chart above, the yellow vertical lines mark Bitcoin’s previous 2016, 2020 and 2024 halving events, along with the upcoming 2028 halving approximately 1,100 days from now.
The blue horizontal segments represent the typical time span between each halving and the following all-time high (ATH).
Historically, Bitcoin tends to reach its ATH approximately 520–540 days after a halving. In the current cycle, this window is indicated by the green vertical line.
💡 If this pattern holds, Bitcoin has likely not yet reached its ATH for this cycle
After reaching previous all-time highs (ATHs), Bitcoin has historically retraced to the 0.5 Fibonacci level before initiating a strong recovery. This pattern has repeated across multiple cycles.
📈 If we use the depth of the previous cycle’s correction as a reference, Fibonacci projections suggest potential targets at around $131,000 and $315,000.
We consider these price levels as hard targets for the ongoing bull market.
📈 If we consider the current local correction phase as complete, Fibonacci projections suggest short-term recovery targets at around $128,000 and $160,000.
These are viewed as soft targets for Bitcoin if the bullish scenario continues into late 2025.
📈 On a broader scale, extending Fibonacci levels from the full impulse of the current cycle points to even higher resistance levels — with an ultimate long-term target near $500,000.
While ambitious, Fibonacci-based corrections have reliably shaped Bitcoin’s price action over the past decade.
It’s worth keeping this figure in mind while remaining adaptable to market changes.

📉 Possible Negative Scenarios Ahead

While the bullish cycle may not be over yet, it’s important to consider potential corrections. Based on past trends, we outline two main scenarios:

Scenario 1: Local Correction

  • Bullish cycle continues; the current all-time high (ATH) has already been reached.
  • However, a clear breakout (higher high) has not yet occurred, and the market may retest the previous ATH.
📉 In this case, a correction toward the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level could bring Bitcoin to around $43,000–$51,000 before another upward attempt.

Scenario 2: Global Correction

  • The bullish cycle has ended, and a new ATH has been reached.
  • The current market impulse, which in this case started even before the most recent 2024 halving, would be followed by a global, long-term correction.
📉 In this scenario, Bitcoin could retrace toward the $33,000–$42,000 range as part of the natural market cycle reset.

📈 Looking Ahead: Growth Scenarios

Regardless of which scenario plays out, the market will eventually face a correction after the next major rally.
Earlier, we outlined potential depths for the coming pullback. Now, let’s explore possible growth scenarios for Bitcoin during the next 4-year cycle following a market reset:

Scenario 1: Global Correction Completed

  • Let’s assume Bitcoin’s current cycle has already peaked and a global correction brings the price down to the $42,000 range.
📈 In that case, targets for the next bull cycle could reach approximately $160,000 and $290,000 per Bitcoin.

Scenario 2: Reaching a Soft Target Before Correction

  • Alternatively, if Bitcoin continues upward toward a $160,000 soft target before a major correction,
📈 Then projected price targets for the next 4-year cycle could rise significantly — up to around $612,000 per Bitcoin.

Scenario 3: Global Correction to $33,000 — Moderate Recovery

📈 If Bitcoin experiences a deep correction down to around $33,000 and achieves the “soft” target range in the current cycle, a subsequent 4-year rebound could lift the price toward $770,000 in the next cycle.

Scenario 4: Deep Correction — Potential for 7-Digit Bitcoin

  • If Bitcoin reaches the lower !!!! boundary of its current bullish cycle’s target range, followed by a deeper correction down to $30,000–$40,000, the next cycle’s growth could be even more dramatic.
  • Although such a rebound may seem extreme, similar moves have occurred in past cycles.
🚨 Long-range Fibonacci extension levels suggest that potential resistance zones in the distant future could extend toward $3,000,000 per Bitcoin. Such levels should be viewed cautiously and are not guaranteed targets.

Conclusion

The previous cycles of Bitcoin halving and the surrounding market dynamics once again affirm a simple truth: despite inevitable corrections and periods of uncertainty, the long-term outlook remains inspiring for attentive and patient investors.
Even the most conservative scenarios reviewed in this article point to significant growth potential within the current and future cycles.
However, we believe the most valuable asset in investing is not the asset itself, but your ability to make informed and independent decisions.
No analysis — no matter how thorough — can replace a personal sense of responsibility for your actions in the market.
We can only offer reference points; the path is yours to choose.
Stay alert, think critically, and remember: the market rewards not those who guess, but those who act systematically and thoughtfully.